Why Is This US Shutdown Different (and Harder to Resolve)?

Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – however the current situation appears particularly intractable because of shifting political forces and bad blood between both major parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay since both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time as both parties – including the President – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.

These are several key factors that make things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to show they have listened.

In March, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's holding firm.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to show they can take back certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.

Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are leveraging the budget standoff to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.

They are also trying to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The President himself stated recently that the government closure provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".

The White House said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".

The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, or OMB, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.

The budget director has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, such as NYC and Chicago.

3. There's little trust on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get federal operations, currently there seems little of the same spirit for compromise presently.

Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.

House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".

Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.

The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, in which the legislator is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.

The representative and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.

4. The US economy is fragile

Experts project about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.

That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business cease functioning.

A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Analysts estimate that it could shave approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.

This might explain partially why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.

On the other hand, analysts say should administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become more long-lasting.